This paper estimates household vulnerability as “expected poverty” using cross‑sectional survey data, given the absence of long‑term panel datasets. Results show that about 52 percent of the population was vulnerable in 2004-05, with rural households facing higher risk than urban. While monetary poverty declined between 2001 and 2005, vulnerability rose from 50 to 52 percent, underscoring the importance of resilience‑focused policies that address income instability, shocks, and limited coping mechanisms.
