Tobacco use remains a major public health and economic challenge in Pakistan, with 31 million adults consuming tobacco and over 163,000 deaths attributed to smoking in 2017. The economic burden reached PKR 615 billion in 2019, disproportionately affecting poor households. This SPD policy note uses predictive modeling to assess the impact of excise tax increases introduced in the Finance Act 2022, showing how higher cigarette prices can reduce consumption, generate revenue, and improve health outcomes.
