This study uses large‑scale simulations to quantify the economic losses from the October 8, 2005 earthquake. The analysis shows that growth could initially decline by 1.5 percentage points, with permanent losses in capital, consumption, and income if reconstruction is absent. Under a $5.8 billion rebuilding plan spread over five years, the economy recovers only partially, regaining about half the lost trajectory. The findings highlight the scale of the disaster’s economic impact and the critical role of sustained investment in restoring stability and resilience.
